True Craps!

For those who believe, no proof is required.

For those who do not believe, no proof is sufficient.

Somewhere in between, are the skeptics, realists, and scientists, .

If you are now, or feel that you may become an avid craps player, you will be confronted with the concept of Dice Control through Dice Setting. The idea of the shooter having control over the outcome of the dice is part of the game. Put the dice in a cup, or on a display terminal, and you kill the game.

If nothing else, gamblers in general and craps players specifically are optimists. Otherwise we would not come back for more after a few losses.

So, if you are an optimistic craps player, and you've heard about Dice Control, how do you know if you want to spend time and money on this aspect of the game? How can you as a knowledgable consumer make a good decision about the expense of your valuable time and money?
Read on, and I'll give you a couple of tools with which you can make up your own mind. The tools I will give you are the Tools of Truth. Apply these tools, and you'll see that Dice Control is no better than any rabbit's foot or lucky charm.

Random Recognition Tool: What is random

Have you seen a statement like this:
"In any 36 rolls, a random shooter should throw six sevens, five sixes or eights, and so on."
Sometimes you will see it in other words, or expressed slightly differently, but the concept is that a random roll will result in a perfectly random outcome.

Know this for what it is: untrue. The likelihood that any old shooter will throw no sevens in any set of 36 rolls is just as likely as the same thrower tossing six sevens, or 36 sevens. All of those outcomes are just as likely to occur in a random scenario. THAT is what random is all about. It is unpredictable, not predictable. Random does not conform to the perfect prediction, it conforms to no prediction.

Remember that in any set of random rolls of 36, you are just as likely to see 36 of any one number as not. In the lifetime of most casinos, they will have seen this play out over the millions of rolls on their many tables and millions of shooters.

Dice Control "experts" want you to believe that a Dice Controller can increase the likelihood that their rolls are more likely than your rolls to end in a good outcome. Hogwash. Randomness assures that.

Testing Tool: Are you a Dice Controller and Don't Know It?

If you shoot the dice, you are a dice controller. It is the nature of the game that almost anything can and frequently does happen. Having a GREAT run, or series of rolls is normal. So how can you tell if your are normal? What test can you take that will prove your dice control, or rolling abilities to be normal, superior, or inferior?

The 800 pound gorilla, gold-standard, A-Number-One test to determine whether your rolls are normal or not is called the "Chi Squared" (pronounced Kie squared, and frequently written as X² because the X is the Greek letter chi) test. This test is as solid a predictor of normalcy as the Rock of Gibraltar (minus a bit of erosion), and its use and validity are the foundation of all statistics and scientific testing.

Chi² calculations can tell us 2 things. First is the "goodness of fit" test, and second is test variable independence. We are interested in the first. We want to know if our series of rolls fits what is normally expected.

To apply the Chi² test, we need to know what a perfectly normal set of numbers is, and what set of numbers we have to compare. Fortunately, we know what a perfectly normal outcome will be with a set of dice. In a perfectly normal outcome there will be a perfect ratio of:

- One 12 and one 2
- Two 11's and two 3's
- Three 10's and three 4's
- Four 9's and four 5's
- Five 8's and five 6's
- Six 7's

To apply the Chi² test, use this formula:

.

Once you have calculated the Chi² value, you check it in a table of numbers that has withstood the test of time and mathematicians called a table of "Critical values of Chi², with degrees of freedom". Perhaps you will have to trust me on this, but, statisticians do this on a routine basis, and if you wish to do the calculations (ARRGhhh!) you may do so with the information I have provided.

For those of you (most everyone I suspect) who want to cut to the chase, I will say this: calculating a Chi² on any number of rolls less than 1,000 or so proves beyond a shadow of a doubt what we already know. What we know is that almost anything can happen, especially in the short term.

Now, hang on to your hats, because here comes the good part. Chi² tells us what the "Short Term" is!

In craps, the short term is anything under about 2,000 rolls.

Run the Chi² test for yourself on sets of rolls of 100, 200, and 300. It won't take long, and you'll immediately see that even though your results are indeed random, and perfectly normal, they do not approximate a perfect distribution at all. You will see that as the number of rolls increases, your sample gets closer and closer to perfection.

Dice Control "experts" want you to believe that they can "test" their skills, and "prove" that they have an advantage in fewer than 500 rolls. Hogwash. Don't believe them. You know better.

Tools to Discard

Now that you know how long the short term is, and that it is true that almost anything can and will happen with regard to the dice outcomes, you can disregard:

* Sevens-to-rolls ratios. These are meaningless constructs.
* The "Random" roll. Getting a perfect distribution at any time is just as likely as any other set of 36 numbers.
* Any test such as the "Pro Test" that relies on a statement such as
"A random shooter should achieve 16 z-axis controlled outcomes on average for any 36 rolls."
* You should never spend money to learn to gamble better. Spend your money gambling, and reading books, gaining experience, fun, and knowledge.

Now that you know the powerfulness of simple random play, and that almost any sequence of numbers can be thrown at just about any time, all you have to do is learn to take advantage of this knowledge. No practice tables, no coaches, no seminars, no axis analyses are required.

Tools to Use

+ Make only good bets with less than 2% house advantage.
+ Have a bankroll large enough, and free enough of worries to bet at a level you can win with.
+ Quit when you have won about 4 times your flat-bet amount ($20 for a $5 bettor), and have lost 2 bets or more in a row.
+ Shoot any way you want knowing that proper betting strategy, knowledge, and bankroll will get you all the advantage you can handle.

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